After the outbreak of the Coronavirus, because of travel restriction and fear, it can be anticipated that there would be a significant change in travel behaviour. However, very few research exclusively analyzed the changes of factors for different modes at different stages of COVID-19 (before, during, and after) in the context of developing countries. This study contributed to the knowledge, first by understanding if any changes in travel patterns transpired among the stages of the outbreak (before, during, and after), and second by understanding the importance of variables for different travel modes during each stage for different cities in Bangladesh. The research questions that were answered to achieve this aim are 1) Do travel patterns vary before, during, and after the COVID-19 situation? 2) Will there be a change in the importance of socio-economic and travel-related variables between before and during COVID-19 for all travel modes?. The analytical tool adopted was the combination of the exploratory data analysis and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. For both before and during the COVID-19 situation ANN models had been calibrated separately for each mode. The online survey (conducted between April 2020 and May 2020) for this research includes a comprehensive set of questions associated with individuals' travel behaviors, habits, and perceptions before, during, and after the outbreak, as well as their expectations about the future. Results revealed that the importance of variables for predicting the use of different modes at different stages of COVID-19 changed due to fear of virus spread, restrictions on travel, and affordability of different modes. During COVID-19 the most popular modes were walk and rickshaw. Socio-demographic variables including income, age, and gender were very important only for walk mode share at all stages of COVID-19. other travel-related variables such as trip purpose and travel cost have an important impact on mode choice decisions during-COVID-19. After-COVID-19 it can be anticipated that the walk, bicycle, and car mode shares would be moderately increased, and app-based service and motorcycle mode share would be slightly increased. The outcomes of this study can be applied to other developing countries with similar characteristics.
Date: | 2022-03-29 |
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Authors: | Nasrin S, Bunker J. |
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Ref: | SSRN |
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